by FAN Yicheng

Shanghai's economy extended its rebound in the first quarter, outpacing the national average as consumption, investment and trade strengthened despite a volatile external environment.

Gross domestic product rose 5.9% year on year to 1.35 trillion yuan (US$197 billion) in January–March, data from the city’s statistics bureau showed on April 22, 0.9 percentage points above the national rate.

The reading continues a steady recovery. Shanghai lagged national growth in 2023, matched it in 2024 and moved ahead in 2025, with momentum now strengthening.

"The results highlight the resilience of Shanghai's economy under external uncertainties," said FENG Xingdong of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

Consumption led the recovery. Retail sales rose 5.5%, supported by a pickup in activity and large-scale events.

The Formula One Chinese Grand Prix in March drew more than 230,000 spectators over three days, with over 80% from outside the city, generating 13.26 billion yuan in spending.

Policy support added momentum. A trade-in programme lifted sales of communications equipment and office supplies by 6.4% and 11.5%, while subsidies boosted new energy vehicle sales by 15%.

Feng said the rebound reflects both policy support and structural shifts in consumption.

On the supply side, new retail formats — including flagship store launches and the night-time economy — are helping lift consumption. Shanghai added 1,093 new "first stores" in 2025, with global and regional flagships accounting for 16.8%.

Inbound demand also improved, with foreign arrivals rising 25.1% year on year.

Confidence indicators strengthened. A quarterly index released by Shanghai University of Finance and Economics showed consumer confidence at 93.0 and investor confidence at 123.8, both higher than the previous quarter.

Investment also grew. Fixed-asset investment rose 7.6%, led by industry and infrastructure, up 22.8% and 13.7% respectively, while property investment was broadly flat.

Shanghai has scheduled 184 major projects for 2026, with planned investment at a record 255 billion yuan. Twelve projects broke ground in the first quarter.

Trade was another bright spot. Total imports and exports rose 21.9% to 1.23 trillion yuan, with exports up 16.3%, extending 18 months of growth.

"Both volumes and quality improved in the first quarter," said SHEN Kaiyan of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

High-end exports drove growth. Shipments of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar products surged 121.9%, with solar cells, EVs and batteries rising 183.5%, 135.4% and 99.2%.

Shen attributed the gains to targeted policy support, including tax rebates, faster customs clearance and financing for high-value sectors.

Industrial upgrading continued. Output in strategic emerging industries rose 8.6%, led by new energy vehicles, up 34.9%.

Geopolitical tensions in energy markets could further boost demand for China's new energy exports, she said.

Trade also became more diversified, with shipments to the European Union and ASEAN both rising by more than 16%.