by XIN Yuan

China still has the potential to grow at around 8% annually through 2035, a pace he said is "not overly optimistic", according to Justin Yifu Lin, the former chief economist of the World Bank and now dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University.

Speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia annual conference on March 24, Lin said China's advantages in the fourth industrial revolution — including artificial intelligence, nuclear fusion and quantum computing — would support long-term growth.

He pointed to China's large talent pool, with nearly 6 million graduates each year across disciplines, as a key driver of innovation, along with its scale as both a market and a manufacturing base.

On a purchasing power parity basis, China is already the world's largest economy and market, Lin said, adding that its broad industrial base and wide range of real-world applications would continue to support the rollout of new technologies. "China will be strongest in hardware," he said.

Lin also highlighted China's development model, which combines market forces with active government support, as a structural advantage.

Beyond emerging industries, he said China still accounts for over 80% of the industrial base shaped by the first three industrial revolutions, while continuing to upgrade traditional sectors through digitalization and greener growth.

"Taking all these factors into account, it is not overly optimistic to say China could grow at around 8%," Lin said.

However, he cautioned that potential growth may not fully translate into actual performance. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, weak demand in advanced economies, along with deglobalization trends, geopolitical tensions and domestic structural adjustments, have held back China's growth.

In recent years, China's economic expansion has remained below its estimated potential, he said.

On China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%, Lin said the goal was achievable barring major external shocks. If the external environment remains broadly stable, growth could exceed 5%, he added.