by CHEN Yixuan
Major container lines have announced higher FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates on Asia–Europe routes effective November 15, moving earlier than in previous years as they try to firm up a soft market ahead of 2026 contract talks.
Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and MSC all published new rate tables on their websites. Hapag-Lloyd raised its Asia–Mediterranean FAK to US$2,450 for a 20'GP and US$3,500 for a 40'GP, about 40% above October. CMA CGM lifted its 20'GP by US$350 and 40'GP by US$700, while MSC increased the same box sizes by US$480 and US$800, with average gains above 36%.
Freight rates out of Southeast Asia had already begun to rise in recent months as shippers adjusted supply chains in response to U.S.–China tariff uncertainty, prompting carriers to expand "China+X" routing strategies. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the shift in global trade patterns triggered by tariffs is now clearly reflected in freight indexes.
Forwarders say carriers are trying to set a higher reference level before contract season. Fourth-quarter adjustments are typical, but this year's notices came two to three weeks earlier and in tighter sequence. Last year's isolated offers near US$4,500–5,000/FEU drew few takers; this year more carriers joined, and increases were more moderate.
Shippers report that transaction prices on Europe-bound cargo are edging up. Year-end shipments tied to Christmas and Black Friday remain the main driver, while exports of solar products and electric vehicles are rising. China exported 652,000 vehicles in the first nine months of 2025, up 21%, and NEV exports in January alone climbed nearly 50%.
Higher FAK levels, however, do not necessarily push up spot rates, which track actual deals. The latest Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 5% to US$1,859/FEU, down 46% from a year earlier, as post-pandemic vessel deliveries and smoother empty-container repositioning keep capacity abundant.
On specific lanes, Shanghai–Genoa rose 4% to US$2,193/FEU and Shanghai–Rotterdam increased 3% to US$2,028/FEU as of November 13. Rates to the U.S. moved lower: Shanghai–New York dropped 15.2% to US$3,254/FEU, and Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 12.05% to US$2,328/FEU, despite the suspension of Section 301 tariffs. A manager at VMS Group said demand on the transpacific remains weak and that some early-November FAK hikes quickly reversed as volumes fell short.
Industry executives say carriers are testing early pricing moves and tighter capacity control, but the effect remains unclear. Forwarders note that shippers often delay bookings unless necessary, making it hard for rate increases to stick.
Carrier earnings show the pressure. Hapag-Lloyd's January–September net profit halved to €846 million, prompting it to cut full-year EBIT guidance to €0.5–1 billion. Analysts lowered its 12-month target price to around €106.33, down 3.34%. CMA CGM's third-quarter net profit slid 72.6% to US$749 million, with average freight rates down 17.4% despite a 2.3% increase in liftings to 6.17 million TEU. The company said disruptions in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden continue to complicate Asia–Europe operations.
Oversupply remains a major drag. UNCTAD data show global newbuilding orders jumped more than 50% in 2024, sending the containership orderbook to a record 8.3 million TEU at year-end. Much of that tonnage is being delivered this year, widening the gap between supply and demand. One forwarder said capacity is "ample" and that spot rates will rise only when demand starts to outpace supply.
Logistics firms expect some short-term support for Asia–Europe routes as year-end demand meets a calmer Middle East backdrop. But many say the broader market remains softer than last year, with one logistics executive noting: "Carriers can raise FAKs, but only real cargo will determine whether the increases hold."