by XIN Yuan

China's exports rebounded sharply in April as holiday-related distortions faded and demand tied to the global artificial intelligence boom remained strong, though analysts warned geopolitical tensions and weaker global growth could weigh on China's exports later this year.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on Saturday showed China's exports in dollar terms rose 14.1% year on year in April, up by 11.6 percentage points from March. Imports increased 25.3%, although the pace slowed by 2.5 percentage points from the previous month.

WANG Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, told Jiemian News the rebound mainly reflected the fading of holiday effects that had sharply dragged down export growth in March. He added that restocking demand linked to Middle East tensions and the global AI investment boom also supported exports, particularly shipments of integrated circuits.

Customs data showed that from January to April, exports to ASEAN and the European Union both rose about 19%, while exports to the United States fell 10.2%.

Wang said export growth in May would likely remain relatively strong because of a low comparison base from a year earlier but warned that rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions could weaken global demand and eventually weigh on Chinese exports. He also said the sustainability of the AI investment boom remained uncertain.

ZHANG Di, senior macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities, told Jiemian News geopolitical conflict was raising global production and transport costs through supply-chain disruptions, potentially further suppressing trade growth.

Still, Zhang said China's stable industrial production, competitive export products and diversified export markets continued to support its global export share. Leading indicators point to resilient exports through the third quarter, he added.

Zhang added that alternative overland freight routes were also helping cushion disruptions to maritime shipping.

On imports, Wang said growth could remain relatively strong this year, supported by AI-related chip demand and higher crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, though the pace would gradually normalize.

"Taking into account price trends for major imported commodities such as chips and crude oil, as well as changes in domestic demand, imports are likely to maintain relatively fast growth in May, though the pace may gradually ease later," Wang said.