by WANG Tingting

China's tier-one housing market has become noticeably more active this spring, with Shanghai leading a pickup in both new and existing home sales after a prolonged slowdown.

Sales offices that were once quiet are now busy again, with faster deal cycles reflecting improved buyer sentiment — a sharp contrast to the subdued mood just a year ago.

In the new-home market, developers say buyer behavior has shifted quickly. "A year ago, you had to persuade buyers. Now they worry that if they hesitate, the unit will be taken," said a sales manager at a project in southern Shanghai.

Developers are accelerating launches and bringing more inventory to market as demand picks up. "We were ready to wrap up for the day, then had to restart another round of sales," the manager said.

Some projects are selling out within hours — in one case, 79 units were cleared in just 90 minutes after sales opened.

The rebound is no longer confined to high-end projects in prime locations. Activity has also picked up in more affordable developments outside the city center, with owner-occupier demand returning.

That does not mean the market is rebounding evenly. SONG Hongwei, an analyst at Tospur Real Estate Consulting, said structural divergence will remain a defining feature, with stronger projects in core districts outperforming weaker areas — a pattern often described as a "K-shaped" recovery.

Song said a true turning point in the property market would require three conditions: a reduction in financial risks in the sector, a sustained rise in transactions that helps stabilize prices, and a broader recovery across the property chain — from land purchases and new starts to sales.

Under current market conditions, he said, tier-one cities are already showing early signs of bottoming out. Seasonal demand in March, policy support and a more competitive mix of new housing supply are lifting market confidence.

The improvement is also evident in the existing-home market. "Deals that used to take hours of negotiation can now close in two to three hours," said a Shanghai-based broker.

In mid-March, Shanghai's weekly existing-home transactions exceeded 7,200 units, the highest level in nearly five years.

Prices are beginning to stabilize alongside rising volumes. After nearly ten months of decline, second-hand home prices turned positive month on month, while negotiation margins narrowed to below 5%, according to market participants.

Policy easing has been a key driver of the turnaround. A new package of housing measures introduced by Shanghai authorities on February 25 lowered purchase restrictions and expanded mortgage support, unlocking pent-up demand.

For now, Shanghai is serving as the primary test case. The city is widely seen as a bellwether for China's property market, given its relatively strong fundamentals and policy flexibility.

Similar improvements are emerging in other tier-one cities.

In Beijing, existing-home transactions reached around 9,783 units by March 18, up more than 20% from the whole of February, while new-home activity also picked up.

In Shenzhen, transaction volumes have risen sharply, with weekly existing-home deals more than doubling in early March, according to market data.

In Guangzhou, existing-home transactions had reached about 7,471 units by March 20, putting the market on track for a strong monthly rebound.

Analysts say the pickup across major cities suggests the rebound is broadening, though its durability remains uncertain.

DING Zuyu, chairman of CRIC, a Chinese property data provider, said April and May would be a key window for testing whether the recovery can be sustained.

He noted that despite the recent pickup, asking prices for second-hand homes in major cities are still trending lower, with seller expectations yet to stabilize.

To sustain momentum, analysts say further policy support may be needed, including easier provident fund rules and smoother existing-home transaction processes to help homeowners upgrade.

"For now, stronger transaction volumes are still being driven by price cuts," Ding said, adding that the market is likely to remain in a phase of "falling prices, stronger sales, price stabilization and then softer volumes" rather than a sharp reversal in both prices and sales.