by XIN Yuan

China's exports rose 21.8% year on year in January–February, customs data showed on Tuesday, as strong global demand — particularly for semiconductors linked to the artificial intelligence boom — supported trade. Imports increased 19.8%, according to the General Administration of Customs.

WANG Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, told Jiemian News the surge in global AI investment has lifted semiconductor supply-chain trade while overall external demand remains solid. Export data from countries such as South Korea and Vietnam also suggest global trade momentum remains strong, he said.

However, Wang noted much of the increase in semiconductor trade reflects higher prices rather than greater physical output, limiting its contribution to real economic growth.

China's top three export markets were ASEAN, the European Union and the United States. Exports to ASEAN rose 29.4% year on year and shipments to the EU increased 27.8%, while exports to the United States fell 11%. 

Wang said export growth may ease in March as last year's comparison base rises and the effects of higher U.S. tariffs on global trade become clearer.

LUO Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said China's export resilience reflects the rising competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing.

On the import side, Wang said growth could slow to around 5% year on year in March as export momentum weakens and last year's low base fades.

He also warned disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a key corridor for global oil shipments — could affect China's crude imports from the Middle East and weigh on import growth in the short term.

China imported goods worth $2.6 trillion in 2025, remaining the world's second-largest import market for the 17th consecutive year, HE Yadong, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said earlier.

Economists say stronger efforts to boost domestic demand this year could support imports of consumer goods and commodities.