by ZHAO Meng

China's marriage registrations rebounded in 2025 after years of decline, supported by administrative easing and the release of pent-up demand, even as longer-term demographic pressures persist.

Official data show the pickup has been broad-based. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, China recorded 5.152 million legally registered marriages in the first three quarters of 2025, up 8.5% year on year, an increase of 405,000 couples.

Demographers say the full-year total is likely to exceed that of 2024. HE Yafu, a population expert, told Jiemian News that the rebound reflects a combination of administrative reforms, timing effects and local incentives. Chief among them was the rollout in May of nationwide marriage registration, which removed household registration book requirements and allowed cross-provincial registration, easing access for people working away from their place of origin.

Cultural timing also played a role. The lunar year of 2025 is considered a "double-spring year," traditionally viewed as auspicious for marriage, encouraging some couples to concentrate wedding plans. At the same time, couples who delayed registration during the pandemic or amid work pressures completed legal formalities as social life normalized.

Over the past decade, marriage registrations in the first three quarters have typically made up 72%–79% of annual totals. That implies a full-year figure of about 6.52 million to 7.16 million couples in 2025, with a midpoint near 6.84 million—above the 6.106 million recorded in 2024 even at the lower end.

The strongest gains were seen in migrant-heavy cities. Shanghai registered 125,100 marriages in 2025, up 38.7% from a year earlier and the highest level in nearly a decade, with cross-provincial cases accounting for 38.49%. Shenzhen reported 118,900 registrations, up 28.54%, with about 35% involving couples from different provinces.

Policy changes have also reshaped the profile of registrants, with more than 80% of cross-provincial marriages involving people aged 25–34, mostly young workers living away from their hometowns.

In China, where non-marital births remain rare, marriage rates are widely seen as closely linked to birth trends, making marriage registrations a closely watched demographic signal.

Despite the improvement, analysts caution the rebound is likely to be short-lived. Structural headwinds remain, including a shrinking marriage-age population, high housing and childcare costs, and changing attitudes toward marriage and family. Higher registration numbers do not necessarily translate into higher fertility.

Age data underline the persistence of later marriage. People aged 25–34 accounted for more than 65% of new registrations, while those aged 20–24 made up just 12.7%, reflecting continued caution among younger adults.

Demographers say sustaining marriage rates over the longer term will require deeper reforms, particularly to address housing, education and childcare costs. Administrative easing and incentives may continue to generate short-term spikes, but a lasting reversal of China's long-term decline in marriage remains uncertain.