by WANG Yuhan

Hong Kong's housing market has started 2026 on a firmer footing, with rising viewing activity and brisk primary-market sales prompting several institutions to lift their price outlooks.

According to Centaline Property, bookings for home viewings at the city’s 10 major housing estates reached 442 over the weekend of Jan 24–25, up 3.3% from the previous week. Viewing activity has risen for four consecutive weeks, reaching a six-week high.

Momentum has been more evident in transactions, particularly at the luxury end. Midland Realty said that in the first 20 days of January, 16 primary luxury homes priced above HK$100 million were sold, with total consideration of about HK$3.7 billion. That already exceeds the full-month total in January last year and marks the strongest January performance since 2013.

"New-home sales have been robust, and banks are actively rolling out mortgage incentives, keeping market sentiment buoyant," said YANG Mingyi, senior co-director of research at Centaline, adding that the Lunar New Year peak could arrive earlier than usual.

Developers have helped drive the early-year recovery by accelerating launches. Sun Hung Kai Properties' Sierra Sea development in Sai Sha sold out 703 units across three sales rounds within 10 days in early January, with average prices edging higher and larger units fetching more than HK$20,000 per square foot.

At LOHAS Park in Tseung Kwan O, the Park Seasons project developed by Wheelock Properties and MTR Corp sold about 80 of 108 units released on Jan 24, generating more than HK$530 million in a single day. Wheelock said the broader Seasons series is now nearly 96% sold, with cumulative proceeds exceeding HK$11.9 billion.

Midland's senior director Sammy Po expects primary home transactions in January to exceed 2,000 units, the strongest January since 2013, while secondary-market deals could surpass 5,000, a more than decade-high for the period. The Midland Home Price Index has risen for eight consecutive weeks, rebounding 7.59% from its 2025 low and reversing a three-year decline.

The improving market reflects the cumulative impact of policy easing, lower interest rates and talent inflows. In February 2024, the Hong Kong government scrapped all additional stamp duties on residential purchases, cutting the tax burden for non-local buyers from as high as 30% to about 4.25%.

The interest-rate environment has also turned more supportive. After the US Federal Reserve began cutting rates in 2025, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered its base rate to 4.0%, while the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate eased from around 5.5% to below 4%, bringing down mortgage costs. Markets widely expect further US rate cuts in 2026.

Land Registry data show that total property transactions in 2025 reached 80,702, a four-year high, with total consideration of HK$614.28 billion, up 15% year on year. Residential deals accounted for 62,832 transactions, up 18.3%, with value rising 14.4% to HK$519.83 billion.

Mainland Chinese buyers were a key source of demand. Centaline estimates that more than 13,500 Mandarin-speaking buyers entered the market in 2025, with total purchases of HK$136.4 billion, the highest level since records began in 1995. In the primary market, mainland buyers contributed more than half of total funding, with 6,502 transactions worth HK$78.9 billion.

Global banks have turned more optimistic. Morgan Stanley said that after a 4% rise in 2025, Hong Kong home prices could climb by more than 10% in 2026, citing the removal of stamp duties, cumulative US rate cuts of 175 basis points and a 28% gain in the Hang Seng Index last year.

HSBC Global Asset Management raised its forecast for residential price growth in 2026–2027 to 7% a year, while Bank of America said the market likely bottomed in mid-2025 and that the recovery should broaden in 2026.