by XIN Yuan

China's economy expanded 5.0% in 2025, meeting the government's annual target as stronger policy support and resilient exports helped offset external volatility, official data showed on Monday.

Gross domestic product totaled 140.19 trillion yuan, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Growth slowed through the year, with GDP rising 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second, 4.8% in the third and 4.5% in the fourth.

In a statement, the statistics bureau said the economy weathered domestic and external headwinds. It said policymakers would step up macroeconomic support to expand domestic demand, optimize supply and support higher-value sectors, while pressing ahead with reforms to build a unified national market.

WANG Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, told Jiemian News that stronger policy support, faster growth in high-tech manufacturing and resilient exports underpinned China's full year expansion despite global trade volatility. In dollar terms, exports rose 5.5% in 2025, with net exports estimated to have added 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, well above the 0.4 percentage point average of the past decade.

Analysts interviewed by Jiemian News expect China's economy to grow 4.8%–5.0% in 2026.

LUO Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, forecast 5.0% growth in 2026, supported by exports and centrally backed infrastructure investment, but said the outlook depends on stabilizing the property sector and local government debt. He expects growth to firm later in the year as policy support feeds through.

Wang said weaker external demand will require domestic demand to take on a larger role next year, with policy support expected to lift consumption and stabilize investment, keeping 2026 growth near 4.8%.