by ZHAO Meng

China recorded a rare increase in marriage registrations in the first nine months of 2025, though demographers say the rebound is tied to one-off factors and will not change the country's long-running decline in weddings and births.

The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported 5.152 million marriages in January–September, up 8.5% from a year earlier. The gain has raised the likelihood that full-year registrations will surpass 2024's 6.106 million, which would be the first annual rise in nearly a decade.

Demographers attribute the increase to an unusually favorable lunar calendar year, streamlined registration rules and a wave of local incentives. 2025 is a "double-spring year," traditionally seen as auspicious for weddings, prompting many couples who postponed ceremonies in 2024 to register this year. A regulatory overhaul in May also allowed couples to marry anywhere in China without presenting a household-registration booklet, easing access for millions living away from their hometowns. In Guangzhou, cross-region couples made up 38.5% of registrations on the first day of the new system.

Local governments have rolled out cash rewards, wedding vouchers and longer paid leave to support marriages, while a national childcare subsidy—3,600 yuan (US$506) per newborn annually for three years—has encouraged some couples to formalize marriages before having children.

Demographer HE Yafu expects total registrations this year to reach 6.52–7.16 million, with a midpoint of about 6.84 million, above last year's total.

But he and other demographers say the rise is likely to be short-lived. China's population aged 20–39 has fallen from 31.49% of the total in 2014 to 26.03% in 2024 — a drop of more than 60 million people — leaving far fewer adults in their prime marrying years. Smaller cohorts born in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s will continue to shrink the pool in the coming decade. High housing costs, high marriage expenses in some regions and shifting attitudes among younger adults are also weighing on marriage rates, they say.