by XIN Yuan

China's fixed-asset investment (FAI) fell 1.7% in the first ten months of the year, widening from a 0.5% fall in the January–September period, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data released on Friday. The slowdown spanned infrastructure, manufacturing and property, though economists expect policy support to firm up investment toward year-end.

Infrastructure investment excluding utilities dipped 0.1% in January–October, reversing the 1.1% gain recorded in the first nine months. WANG Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, said Beijing's latest growth-support measures should help lift infrastructure spending in the coming months. With U.S. tariffs weighing on exporters and external demand weakening, he said infrastructure is set to play a larger role as a stabilizer for the economy.

WU Chaoming of Hunan Chasing Financial Holding said more than 1 trillion yuan in pending special-purpose bond issuance, along with the possible front-loading of major "15th Five-Year Plan" projects, could lift infrastructure growth closer to 5%.

Funding support has already accelerated. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on October 31 that the full 500-billion-yuan batch of new policy-bank financing had been deployed, helping generate 7 trillion yuan in related investment.

Property investment remained the largest drag. Real-estate investment fell 14.7% in the first ten months, with deeper declines in construction activity, home sales and developer funding. Wang said recent housing support measures and faster bank lending to government-endorsed priority projects could slow the decline in the final two months of the year. But he expects full-year real-estate investment to fall more sharply than last year's –10.6%, as policy easing has been more cautious this year.

Manufacturing investment grew 2.7% in the period, down from the pace through September. Wang said the slowdown reflects a more volatile global environment and recent policy efforts to rein in excess capacity, both of which have dampened business sentiment. Even so, he noted that medium- and long-term loans to manufacturers are still expanding faster than overall credit, and government incentives for equipment upgrades continue to provide support.

He expects full-year manufacturing investment to grow around 3%, a 6.2-percentage-point slowdown from 2024.